Key political risks to watch in Mongolia
ULAN BATOR, April 2 (Reuters) - Mongolia sits on vast quantities of untapped mineral wealth, the exploitation of which is likely to turn it into one of the world's fastest growing economies over the next decade.
But political uncertainty ahead of parliamentary elections in June worries investors. One of the parties in Mongolia's shaky coalition government said it would pull out before the vote, and politicians are under constant pressure to be seen to getting a good deal for the country from resources investors.
The priority for Mongolia is the development of its tiny economy, and foreign investors want to know if the government can create a stable legal environment while handling the pressures exerted by impatient citizens as well as its two giant neighbours, Russia and China.
Following is a summary of key political risks to watch:
INVESTMENT POLITICS
Mongolia wants to launch a $3 billion initial public offering of the Tavan Tolgoi or "Five Hills" coal deposit. State-owned Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi had been planning to list 29 percent of the company in London and Hong Kong by May, but it cannot until Mongolia's parliament passes a securities law.
An initial proposal to hand development rights in the project to China's Shenhua, Peabody of the United States and a Russian-Mongolian consortium was rejected, and the government is trying to devise another deal that will include Japanese and South Korean partners.
Erdenes will need to raise up to $400 million this year if its planned float does not go ahead by December, a senior executive said in March.
The government is under pressure to pass several new laws, including the budget, an election law and judicial reforms, as well as the investment agreement for Tavan Tolgoi.
It has abandoned its idea of renegotiating the contract for the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine, after earlier saying it wanted to look again at a 2009 deal with Ivanhoe Mines. The project will be taken over by Rio Tinto , which already owns 49 percent of Ivanhoe and, as of mid-January, was cleared to buy more.
Some politicians have called for the prime minister to resign over his handling of the Oyu Tolgoi contract.
What to watch:
- Progress of new laws through parliament.
- Parliamentary elections in June. Shenhua Energy Co Ltd , China's largest coal producer, has said its negotiations to invest in Tavan Tolgoi are likely to restart after the vote.
- Whether the government can produce an investment agreement for Tavan Tolgoi that will satisfy foreign partners and keep the public happy, and whether it can do it in time. - More inward investment. In November, commodities trader Trafigura and private equity investor Origo Partners Plc , formed a joint venture to develop Mongolian coal and iron ore deposits for export, and in February Goldman Sachs bought a 4.8 percent stake in a Mongolian bank.
THE RESOURCE "CURSE"
Mongolia's dependence on mining has alarmed environmentalists and opposition politicians, and the country is already showing classic symptoms of "Dutch disease", including soaring inflation and high interest rates.
The government is trying to bring in structures that will protect it against fluctuating commodity prices, and wants to use the proceeds from mining to pay for infrastructure, health and education, and develop other sectors.
It is under pressure to spread the wealth, and has already extracted pre-payments from foreign firms involved in both the Tavan Tolgoi and Oyu Tolgoi projects in order to give money to the public.
What to watch:
- How Mongolia uses the income from its mining projects. It has set up education and fiscal stabilisation funds, but it has also promised direct dividends for Mongolian citizens.
- How it deals with rapid economic change as well as inflation as foreign investment transforms the country's mainly rural economy. The International Monetary Fund warned in November that Mongolia's economic policies are creating inflationary pressures.
GETTING ON WITH THE NEIGHBOURS
Many of Mongolia's 2.7 million citizens are concerned about growing Chinese and Russian influence, and their fears were not allayed by the plan to hand the majority of Tavan Tolgoi's western block to Chinese and Russian interests.
China already dominates Mongolia's economy, buying 90 percent of the country's exports in the first half of 2011.
Mongolia's reliance on Russia and China for fuel, power and transportation also poses a major risk to its mining sector. Russia has been known to turn off supply taps, and China is not averse to closing crucial railway links.
Mongolia also depends on Russia's railway network to fulfil plans to deliver coal to Japan and South Korea. Mongolia's plans to build itself a railway network capable of transporting coal to foreign markets is likely to be delayed, officials said in February.
What to watch:
- Will efforts to ease dependence on China merely increase Russia's hold, and vice versa? Is the Chinese market for coal and other minerals its only option in the short term?
- How will the government handle growing nationalist sentiment, and fears about the role of foreign firms and workers. (Editing by Daniel Magnowski)
But political uncertainty ahead of parliamentary elections in June worries investors. One of the parties in Mongolia's shaky coalition government said it would pull out before the vote, and politicians are under constant pressure to be seen to getting a good deal for the country from resources investors.
The priority for Mongolia is the development of its tiny economy, and foreign investors want to know if the government can create a stable legal environment while handling the pressures exerted by impatient citizens as well as its two giant neighbours, Russia and China.
Following is a summary of key political risks to watch:
INVESTMENT POLITICS
Mongolia wants to launch a $3 billion initial public offering of the Tavan Tolgoi or "Five Hills" coal deposit. State-owned Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi had been planning to list 29 percent of the company in London and Hong Kong by May, but it cannot until Mongolia's parliament passes a securities law.
An initial proposal to hand development rights in the project to China's Shenhua, Peabody of the United States and a Russian-Mongolian consortium was rejected, and the government is trying to devise another deal that will include Japanese and South Korean partners.
Erdenes will need to raise up to $400 million this year if its planned float does not go ahead by December, a senior executive said in March.
The government is under pressure to pass several new laws, including the budget, an election law and judicial reforms, as well as the investment agreement for Tavan Tolgoi.
It has abandoned its idea of renegotiating the contract for the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine, after earlier saying it wanted to look again at a 2009 deal with Ivanhoe Mines. The project will be taken over by Rio Tinto , which already owns 49 percent of Ivanhoe and, as of mid-January, was cleared to buy more.
Some politicians have called for the prime minister to resign over his handling of the Oyu Tolgoi contract.
What to watch:
- Progress of new laws through parliament.
- Parliamentary elections in June. Shenhua Energy Co Ltd , China's largest coal producer, has said its negotiations to invest in Tavan Tolgoi are likely to restart after the vote.
- Whether the government can produce an investment agreement for Tavan Tolgoi that will satisfy foreign partners and keep the public happy, and whether it can do it in time. - More inward investment. In November, commodities trader Trafigura and private equity investor Origo Partners Plc , formed a joint venture to develop Mongolian coal and iron ore deposits for export, and in February Goldman Sachs bought a 4.8 percent stake in a Mongolian bank.
THE RESOURCE "CURSE"
Mongolia's dependence on mining has alarmed environmentalists and opposition politicians, and the country is already showing classic symptoms of "Dutch disease", including soaring inflation and high interest rates.
The government is trying to bring in structures that will protect it against fluctuating commodity prices, and wants to use the proceeds from mining to pay for infrastructure, health and education, and develop other sectors.
It is under pressure to spread the wealth, and has already extracted pre-payments from foreign firms involved in both the Tavan Tolgoi and Oyu Tolgoi projects in order to give money to the public.
What to watch:
- How Mongolia uses the income from its mining projects. It has set up education and fiscal stabilisation funds, but it has also promised direct dividends for Mongolian citizens.
- How it deals with rapid economic change as well as inflation as foreign investment transforms the country's mainly rural economy. The International Monetary Fund warned in November that Mongolia's economic policies are creating inflationary pressures.
GETTING ON WITH THE NEIGHBOURS
Many of Mongolia's 2.7 million citizens are concerned about growing Chinese and Russian influence, and their fears were not allayed by the plan to hand the majority of Tavan Tolgoi's western block to Chinese and Russian interests.
China already dominates Mongolia's economy, buying 90 percent of the country's exports in the first half of 2011.
Mongolia's reliance on Russia and China for fuel, power and transportation also poses a major risk to its mining sector. Russia has been known to turn off supply taps, and China is not averse to closing crucial railway links.
Mongolia also depends on Russia's railway network to fulfil plans to deliver coal to Japan and South Korea. Mongolia's plans to build itself a railway network capable of transporting coal to foreign markets is likely to be delayed, officials said in February.
What to watch:
- Will efforts to ease dependence on China merely increase Russia's hold, and vice versa? Is the Chinese market for coal and other minerals its only option in the short term?
- How will the government handle growing nationalist sentiment, and fears about the role of foreign firms and workers. (Editing by Daniel Magnowski)
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